Morocco's economic growth expected to improve

Morocco's economy is poised for a significant acceleration in growth, with the national economy expected to expand by 5.4% in the third quarter of 2026. This marks an improvement from the 4.8% growth recorded in the preceding quarter, according to the High Commission for Planning (HCP).

The anticipated upswing is attributed to a more positive outlook for extractive and manufacturing industries, benefiting from a rebound in global trade. The agricultural sector is forecast to see a substantial recovery, with growth reaching 19.9% year-on-year. Manufacturing is also set to contribute, with added value expected to grow by 1.8%, supported by increased external demand for fertilizers amid easing tariffs in the U.S. market and renewed interest from India and Japan.

Domestic demand will be a primary driver, with household consumption projected to increase by 4.9%. This is underpinned by sustained income growth, favorable financing conditions, and a decline in inflationary pressures. The overall inflation rate is expected to stabilize at 1.2% in the third quarter, down from a peak of 1.7% in April, assuming Brent crude oil prices remain around $85 per barrel.

Productive investment is also expected to regain momentum, rising to 11.1% compared to 9.4% in the second quarter, particularly in port, road, and water infrastructure. However, external trade is projected to negatively impact growth, with imports expected to accelerate faster than exports, driven by domestic demand. Despite geopolitical uncertainties and their potential impact on energy prices and international trade, the Moroccan economy's outlook remains supported by strong domestic fundamentals, including agricultural recovery and resilient domestic demand.