Morocco's Economic Growth Expected to Slow in 2027 After Strong 2026 Driven by Agriculture

Morocco's economy is expected to experience robust growth in 2026, primarily fueled by a significant rebound in the agricultural sector, according to forecasts by the High Commission for Planning (HCP). However, this growth is projected to slow down in 2027 as agricultural production normalizes.

The HCP's prospective economic budget for 2027 anticipates a GDP increase of 4.8% in 2026. This figure is expected to decrease to 3% in 2027, assuming average cereal production and continued support from non-agricultural sectors. The favorable and well-distributed rainfall during the 2025-2026 agricultural season has been credited with reversing earlier deficits, replenishing water reserves, and improving vegetation cover.

Cereal production is forecast to reach approximately 90 million quintals, marking a nearly 50.6% increase compared to the average of the past ten years. The added value of the agricultural sector is projected to grow by 19.1% in 2026, driven by improvements in cereal and fruit production, as well as livestock activities. This growth is expected to contribute about 1.9 percentage points to national economic growth before declining by 6.3% in 2027.

In contrast, non-agricultural sectors are anticipated to see a slight slowdown in 2025, with their added value growth stabilizing at 3% compared to 3.9% in 2025. However, these sectors are expected to regain momentum in 2027, with growth reaching around 4%, supported by industrial activities, the services sector, increased domestic demand, and ongoing major investment projects. The report also touches upon the automotive equipment and textile industries, noting varying growth prospects influenced by global supply chains and demand.