Most Germans expect Chancellor Scholz to leave office early, poll finds

A significant majority of Germans anticipate that Chancellor Olaf Scholz will not complete his current term, with 54% expecting him to step down before the next federal elections scheduled for 2029. A YouGov poll reveals that 36% believe Scholz will remain chancellor through 2026 but depart before the 2029 elections, while another 18% think he will be replaced even sooner, before the end of this year.

Conversely, 29% of respondents expect Scholz to stay in office until the next regular elections, and 17% were undecided. The poll, conducted from August 14-17 among 2,091 eligible voters, suggests a widespread sentiment that Scholz's leadership is not on solid ground.

Furthermore, the survey indicates a lack of confidence in Scholz's authority. Despite recent personnel changes within the German government, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) parliamentary group, and the party leadership prior to the summer break, most respondents feel his authority has not been bolstered. Approximately 36% assessed that Scholz has lost considerable authority within his own party, with an additional 31% stating he has lost some authority. Only a small fraction, 1% and 5% respectively, believe his authority has significantly or slightly increased.

When asked about potential successors, Hendrik Wüst, the premier of North Rhine-Westphalia and a member of the CDU, emerged as the preferred candidate for chancellor, chosen by 25% of respondents. In stark contrast, only 9% of citizens considered Scholz the best choice for the role, while a substantial 66% were unable to name a preferred candidate.