Murder statistics: Government claims success, but data suggests otherwise

Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar has highlighted a 36% decrease in murders during her administration compared to the previous People's National Movement (PNM) government, citing social media data from January to July 2026. However, this selective use of statistics has drawn criticism for potentially obscuring the broader reality of crime in Trinidad and Tobago.

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The problem with manipulating statistics is that someone else can take the same data and, once the figures aren’t fake, tell the truth.

The government's chosen period shows fewer murders, but critics argue a more pertinent timeframe, including periods of a state of emergency (SoE), reveals a less optimistic picture. The first SoE, from December 2024 to April 2025, saw a reported 30% reduction in homicides. Following this, the current administration declared a second SoE in July 2025 due to an upsurge in murders. By the end of 2025, the government boasted a 41% drop in homicides compared to 2024, a figure that reportedly builds upon the initial reduction achieved under the PNM's SoE.

Further analysis of the current year's figures shows that despite extended periods under emergency powers, the murder rate has not significantly improved. As of mid-April 2026, the murder total stood at 217, with a homicide rate of 28 per 100,000, comparable to the previous year. This occurred within a context of 140 days with an SoE and 60 days without, contrasting with the previous year's 103 days of SoE and 94 days without. This suggests that emergency powers, which allow for detention without evidence, have not yielded better results in curbing homicides.

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But her statistics also tell a story about the Government’s failure to use the ongoing state of emergency (SoE) to reduce the murder toll further.

The effectiveness of law enforcement's investigative capabilities is also called into question. The murder detection rate has hovered around 16% for the past three years, with a seven-year average of 16%. This indicates that even with extraordinary measures like states of emergency, the police have struggled to improve their success rate in solving crimes. The Trinidad Express has argued that suspending citizens' rights during an SoE is only justifiable with concrete results, a standard that is reportedly no longer being met.

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As this newspaper has argued ad nauseam, the suspension of citizens’ rights in an SoE can only be justified by concrete results, and that is no longer happening.