Nepal Floods Raise Questions Over Safety of China’s Himalayan Mega-Dam

The devastation caused by Nepal’s floods has brought renewed scrutiny to China’s plan for the world’s largest hydropower project on the lower Yarlung Tsangpo River.

China began construction last July in Nyingchi, in the Tibet Autonomous Region, on a project expected to cost 1.2 trillion yuan. The plan covers a 50-kilometer stretch of the river and includes a dam and five cascading power stations. By using a 2,000-meter drop, the project is designed to generate 300 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity a year, more than three times the output attributed here to the Three Gorges Dam.

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As hydropower dam construction and development increase in the Himalayas, the vulnerability of countries in the region to glacier collapse is growing.

The lower Yarlung Tsangpo lies in a high-altitude Himalayan zone exposed to earthquakes, landslides and other overlapping hazards. Chinese researchers have warned that strong fault activity combined with glacier and permafrost degradation could trigger chains of landslides, collapses and debris flows. A study published in a Chinese geological journal in June said an active fault beneath the project could affect infrastructure stability and called for reinforcement.

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The Yarlung Tsangpo dam project could contribute to greater earthquake risk in terms of both capacity and scale, and could potentially increase the likelihood of landslides.

Experts also point to the tunnels needed to divert the river and exploit the elevation difference. Excavation could produce large volumes of rock and soil, while earthquakes or landslides could increase the risks. Glaciologist Anil Kulkarni told the Financial Times that the expansion of hydropower construction in the Himalayas was increasing regional vulnerability to glacier collapse. Jagannath Panda of the Stockholm Centre for South Asian and Indo-Pacific Affairs said the project could contribute to greater earthquake risk and potentially increase the likelihood of landslides.

China’s National Energy Administration announced tighter safety management and monitoring before the floods. After the disaster, Chinese and Nepali officials highlighted cross-border information sharing. China said it had provided Nepal with video, satellite and hydrological data, as well as warnings about natural dams upstream. Nepal is seeking broader information on glacier movement, river levels and landslides, including an arrangement for hydrological data every 10 minutes.

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China should carefully reconsider this project through dialogue with Himalayan countries, particularly India and Nepal.