Nepal’s Economic Growth Suffers from a Lack of Vision

Nepal’s government wants to double the country’s economy to $100 billion by 2031, but the article questions whether that ambition reflects a broader vision for development. The target, set out in the Current Economic Status Paper released in April, assumes seven percent growth over five years.

Nepal’s economy remained below $2 billion until 1980, reached $3.63 billion in 1990 and $5.5 billion in 2000, then expanded much faster. GDP nearly tripled to $16 billion in the following decade, crossed $33 billion in 2020 and stood at $45.5 billion in 2025. On that trajectory, the $100 billion goal may appear achievable.

The article attributes the recent expansion mainly to economic reform, including greater private-sector participation and trade and investment liberalisation. Viewed in isolation, it describes that as an exemplary development. But the comparison with neighbouring economies is far less flattering. Bangladesh’s 2025 GDP was about eight times Nepal’s, Sri Lanka’s economy was twice as large, and Bhutan’s per-capita GDP was almost four times higher despite its economy being worth less than $4 billion. India’s economy, at nearly $6 trillion, is described as incomparable.

Those figures lead the article to call Nepal a growth laggard, while warning that economic progress cannot be judged by growth alone. Economic growth measures quantity, whereas economic development also requires attention to qualitative conditions. Population and inflation affect the meaning of growth rates, while per-capita income and the distribution of gains provide a clearer picture of how the economy is advancing.

The article presents the debate over Nepal’s development as politically charged and often unsupported by evidence. It argues that historical comparisons require a database and cross-country comparison, rather than assumptions that political change alone caused either deterioration or progress.