Nepal's economy projected to grow 3.85 percent this fiscal year: Economic Survey

Nepal's economy is poised for a 3.85 percent expansion in the current fiscal year, according to the Economic Survey for 2025-26 presented to Parliament. Finance Minister Swarnim Wagle highlighted improved macroeconomic indicators and satisfactory social sector progress, even amidst global economic uncertainty and regional conflicts.

The survey estimates Nepal's economy at Rs66 trillion, with per capita gross national income projected to reach $1,535. This growth rate is considered positive against a global economic slowdown. Province-wise, Bagmati and Gandaki are expected to outperform the national average. The agriculture sector contributes an estimated 24 percent to GDP, while the non-agriculture sector accounts for 76 percent, with Bagmati Province leading economic activity at 36.7 percent.

Despite a projected 4.2 percent decline in paddy production, the external sector shows strength. Remittance inflows surged by 37.7 percent to Rs1.45 trillion, and foreign exchange reserves hit a record Rs3.41 trillion, sufficient for 18.5 months of imports. However, the trade deficit widened by 11.2 percent to Rs1.098 trillion, identified as a persistent challenge.

Digital payment transactions exceeded Rs125 billion by mid-March. Nepal's sovereign credit rating maintained a stable "BB minus" outlook. Inflation remained controlled at 2.13 percent. Significant progress was also noted in human development, with the Human Development Index at 0.622, life expectancy at 71.3 years, and reduced maternal and under-five mortality rates.

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Nepal’s macroeconomic indicators had improved, and the social sector had made satisfactory progress despite uncertainty in the global economy and regional conflicts.