Nepal’s Thermidorian Reaction: How the old political elite is trying to return

Nearly a year after a significant youth uprising shook Nepali society, an uncomfortable irony is emerging: the very political figures whose removal was central to the movement are now maneuvering to reclaim their parties and influence. This trend suggests a potential 'Thermidorian Reaction,' a concept describing a political reversal after a revolution where the old establishment begins to reassert itself.

Political scientists like Crane Brinton have described this phenomenon as a stage following revolutionary fervor, where exhaustion sets in, and society craves stability. In Nepal, the revolutionary energy that demanded change appears to be waning, creating an environment increasingly favorable to the established political elite. Leaders previously pushed to the margins are now actively attempting to return to the center of political life.

While the communist parties continue with largely unchanged structures, the internal dynamics of the Nepali Congress are particularly revealing. Hopes for generational change and reform following the youth movement and the intervention of the 'Gen X' generation seem to be fading. The efforts to reverse these changes are raising concerns about political regression.

The apparent determination of leaders like Sher Bahadur Deuba, KP Sharma Oli, and Pushpa Kamal Dahal to return to prominence represents more than just disappointment for a generation that expected accountability. It signals a potential setback for the aspirations of change and reform that fueled the recent popular movement.