Netanyahu, Likud could gain more seats apart than together, poll suggests

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu might secure more parliamentary seats if he were to leave the Likud party and run as the leader of his own faction, according to a recent poll. The Maariv poll, conducted by Lazar Research, projects that Netanyahu's independent party could win 16 seats in the next election.

In contrast, Likud without Netanyahu at its helm is projected to win only seven seats. If they were to run separately, the two entities would collectively secure 23 seats, a slight increase from Likud's current poll projection of 20 seats. This scenario would position Netanyahu's solo party as the third-largest, trailing behind Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar! and the joint party of former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, both projected to receive 20 seats.

Despite the potential for a larger combined seat count, this hypothetical split would significantly weaken the current governing coalition. The bloc would be reduced to 49 seats, leaving the opposition parties with a commanding 60 seats. Arab parties are expected to retain 11 seats.

Furthermore, the poll revealed skepticism among Israelis about the formation of a unity government comprising parties from both sides of the political spectrum. A majority of respondents believe such a scenario has only a slim chance or no chance at all. The survey also highlighted a difference in voter certainty, with supporters of coalition parties expressing less assurance about casting ballots in the upcoming Knesset election compared to supporters of opposition and Arab parties.