New Caledonia loyalists largest bloc after election, but lack majority

New Caledonia's loyalist coalition has emerged as the largest bloc in the legislature after the territory's provincial elections, but fell short of an outright majority. The final results place a centrist Pacific party in a pivotal kingmaker role, poised to influence the direction of the territory's next executive and its future relationship with France.

The elections, held on June 28 after multiple delays, were the first provincial vote since 2019. They followed deadly unrest in 2024, which was sparked by proposed changes to the local electoral roll. This unrest exposed deep strains in France's relationship with New Caledonia and its Indigenous Kanak population.

Sonia Backes' loyalist alliance, Les Loyalistes-Le Rassemblement, secured 24 seats in the 54-seat Congress. The pro-independence bloc, comprising UC-FLNKS, UNI-Palika, and Dynamique Autochtone, won 26 seats. The balance of power now rests with the centrist party L'Eveil oceanien, which holds four seats.

Under New Caledonia's system, Congress will elect the government by proportional representation. The government members will then choose a president and vice president. This government is expected to play a key role in shaping future negotiations with France regarding the territory's status. Three referendums, including the most recent in 2021, have resulted in majorities favoring remaining part of France. However, the 2021 vote was boycotted by pro-independence parties, who had requested a delay due to a COVID outbreak and a Kanak mourning period.