New heatwave expected next week: 'What's unprecedented is the duration'

Belgium is anticipating another significant heatwave, with temperatures expected to rise sharply by mid-next week. Forecasters predict that temperatures could reach 35 degrees Celsius as early as Thursday, particularly in the Campine region. This follows closely on the heels of intense heat experienced at the end of June and in mid-July.

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Before that, we will have a temporary lull this Sunday with the passage of a disturbance that will likely not bring enough rain to alleviate the drought we have been experiencing for several weeks.

While Sunday is expected to bring a temporary respite with a passing disturbance, it is unlikely to provide sufficient rain to alleviate the ongoing drought. Meteorologists are increasingly confident in the trend towards rising temperatures, with various weather models converging on similar predictions. "Important temperatures" are anticipated from Tuesday onwards.

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Temperatures will be significant starting Tuesday.

The European weather model suggests temperatures could reach around 33 degrees Celsius in the center of the country by Thursday. However, the American model indicates even higher temperatures, potentially nearing 40 degrees, though it is considered less reliable. This upcoming period could mark the fourth heat episode of the year, following those in late May, late June, and mid-July.

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On the basis of the European model, we are indeed talking about temperatures that could reach around 33 degrees Celsius in the center of the country on Thursday, but if we look at the American model, we could even be a little higher (40 degrees) but the latter is less reasonable than the European model.

Scientists define a heatwave as five consecutive days with temperatures above 25 degrees Celsius, including at least three days above 30 degrees. While Belgium officially experienced only one true heatwave in June, other periods were characterized by intense heat. Notably, nighttime temperatures are expected to remain around 20 degrees Celsius, which, while still warm, is more moderate than the suffocating nighttime heat of June that contributed to a significant increase in mortality. The duration of this anticipated heatwave, potentially extending into the first week of August, is what meteorologists find particularly unprecedented.

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The European reference model predicts that the heat could persist until the beginning of August. Until August 2-3. But as we move further away in time, the forecasts are less reliable. So we are not at 100% reliability, but some models indicate potentially higher than 30 degrees until the middle of the first week of August.