New Lebanon-Israel Talks to Begin, in Shadow of US-Iran Deal

Lebanon is embarking on a new round of direct talks with Israel in Washington, but the negotiations are significantly complicated by a recent memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States that designates Lebanon as part of their broader ceasefire discussions. Lebanese officials have maintained that face-to-face negotiations are the only viable path to ending the ongoing conflict, which escalated on March 2 after Hezbollah fired rockets into Israel, triggering Israeli retaliatory attacks.

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There remains a fundamental problem of trust between us and the Israelis in these talks. We cannot fulfill their demands, and they reject all of ours.

Despite Lebanon's insistence on direct dialogue, the Iran-US deal has undermined the Lebanese state's position. Leaders, including President Joseph Aoun, had previously warned that Iran could not negotiate on Lebanon's behalf. According to Lebanese and foreign officials familiar with the situation, the Iran-US agreement has effectively sidelined the Lebanese state, leaving it in its weakest negotiating position to date and casting doubt on the utility of the current talks with Israel.

A Lebanese official expressed skepticism about the prospects for tangible progress, citing a "fundamental problem of trust" between Lebanon and Israel. The official noted that Lebanon cannot meet Israel's demands, and Israel rejects Lebanon's. A key objective for Lebanon in these talks is to secure a timeline for an Israeli military withdrawal from southern Lebanon. However, Israeli officials have indicated that their troops may remain in the area indefinitely.

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This is the only chance we have to generate momentum in these talks, and in this tug-of-war with Iran.

Conversely, Israel views the purpose of the negotiations as disarming and dismantling Hezbollah, which spokesperson David Mencer identified as the sole impediment to a peace agreement with Lebanon. The Lebanese government has been cautious in its approach to disarming Hezbollah, fearing it could ignite a civil conflict, while Hezbollah itself has rejected full disarmament and urged the Lebanese government to cease direct talks with Israel. Karim Safieddine, a fellow at the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy, warned of the risk that Israel might adopt an even harder stance in the negotiations.

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which is why we believe that they should be disarmed and dismantled.