New Mecca pact formalizes Saudi-led Sunni bloc, challenging Israel and Iran

A new defense pact signed by Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan in Mecca on August 7 marks the formalization of a growing conservative Sunni Islamic bloc. Analysts have noted the emergence of this bloc, which aims to serve as a strategic counterweight against both Israel and Iran.

The "Mecca pact" is more than symbolic, building on existing bilateral ties in trade, economics, and military cooperation. While Qatar and Syria are considered components of this emerging bloc, the pact's significance lies in Saudi Arabia's decision to align itself with it. The agreement is likely to be symbolically united by claims over Jerusalem, a potent symbol in the region that has often translated into practical political and military action.

The joint statement declared the agreement's intent to "strengthen collective deterrence against any act of aggression," stipulating that an attack on one signatory would be considered an attack on all. This language mirrors NATO's Article 5, suggesting a robust joint military guarantee. However, the pact's practical enforceability is doubted. For instance, it is unlikely to compel Turkey to war with India over Pakistan, or Pakistan to fight Iran if Saudi Arabia is attacked by proxies. The recent Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, which triggered no response from the new pact members, highlight these limitations. Furthermore, Pakistan's nuclear umbrella is not expected to extend to Saudi Arabia and Turkey under this agreement.

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The agreement is intended to strengthen collective deterrence against any act of aggression, and stipulates that any armed attack against any one of the three states shall be regarded as an attack against them all. It further provides for the enhancement of all aspects of defense cooperation among the three states.