New Zealand internal report warns of Chinese military forays in Pacific

China's expanding security presence in the Pacific is expected to become a "persistent" feature, with ballistic missile tests and naval forays becoming routine, according to an internal New Zealand report. The document, obtained by AFP, was compiled by New Zealand's Defence Force and Ministry of Foreign Affairs while observing a People's Liberation Army navy flotilla in the Philippine Sea.

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New Zealand officials are in close contact with Australian counterparts and maintaining situational awareness of these vessels.

Officials stated they are maintaining close contact with Australian counterparts to monitor these developments. The report anticipates that actions like the PLA-N task group's transit of the Tasman Sea in February 2025 and China's September 2024 inter-continental ballistic missile launch into the Pacific will shape the region's strategic landscape.

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More broadly we anticipate that Chinese actions, such as the PLA-N task group that transited the Tasman Sea in February and China’s launch of an inter-continental ballistic missile into the Pacific in September 2024, will be a persistent feature of our strategic environment.

The 15-page report was submitted to New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and his ministers. China's significant defense investments in recent years have raised concerns among some governments, despite Beijing's claims of peaceful intentions. The report highlighted the navy's rapid expansion as Beijing seeks to increase its influence in the Pacific, an area long dominated by the United States.

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This included the manner in which the task group notified its intentions to conduct live fire exercises, which we consider did not align with international best practice and caused several commercial airlines to change route.

New Zealand's concerns were amplified by the February 2025 deployment of three Chinese warships to the Tasman Sea. While the report acknowledged this deployment was consistent with international law, it criticized the notification process for live fire exercises, deeming it misaligned with international best practices and disruptive to commercial air traffic. The report also noted China's "incremental expansion" of its maritime security presence, including deployments of hospital ships, amphibious vessels, and space support ships designed to track missile activity.

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Beijing’s December deployment to the Philippine Sea “was consistent with China’s incremental expansion of its maritime security presence in the South Pacific over the past decade”.