New Zealand's ruling coalition holds razor-thin majority in poll, new centrist party gains ground

New Zealand's center-right governing coalition is projected to hold a precarious one-seat majority in the 120-seat parliament if an election were held now, according to the Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll. The coalition, comprising the National Party, New Zealand First, and ACT, could secure 61 seats, narrowly avoiding a hung parliament.

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The governing bloc of the centre-right National Party, New Zealand First and ACT could win 61 seats in the 120-seat parliament, giving it a majority of one seat.

However, the poll reveals a significant surge for the new centrist Opportunity Party, which could capture eight seats. This rise in support, with the party exceeding the 5% threshold for parliamentary representation for the first time, could dramatically alter coalition dynamics. The opposition Labour Party is projected to lose seats, with much of its support seemingly shifting to the Opportunity Party. Combined, Labour, the Greens, Te Pati Maori, and the Opportunity Party could win 59 seats.

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Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, the leader of the National party, has ruled out working with the Opportunity Party, saying its policies, particularly on tax, are incompatible with National's approach.

Despite the potential for a slim majority, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has stated his National Party will not work with the Opportunity Party, citing incompatible policies, particularly on taxation. This stance could limit his options for forming a government. Adding to the political complexities, Luxon's recent openness to a referendum on New Zealand's Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) electoral system has created tension within his own coalition. Both New Zealand First and ACT have voiced opposition to such a move, highlighting existing disagreements on economic and minority issues.

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New Zealand First leader Winston Peters described the proposal as 'inexplicable', while ACT said it would oppose such a move.