Nigeria’s economic reforms working, but poverty increasing - IMF

Nigeria's economic reforms, initiated by President Bola Tinubu's administration, have strengthened macroeconomic outcomes and built resilience, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). However, the IMF also cautioned that poverty continues to rise, with 63 percent of Nigerians living in poverty by the end of 2025, and over 27 million facing food insecurity during that year.

Since taking office over three years ago, President Tinubu has pursued significant policy changes, including the removal of a long-standing fuel subsidy and the liberalization of the country's exchange rate. These measures, while considered long overdue by many economists, have coincided with an increase in poverty levels. The World Bank had previously reported that about 61 percent of the population lived in poverty, with a significant portion of that increase occurring before Tinubu's tenure.

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Strong reforms over the past three years have yielded improved macroeconomic outcomes and built resilience.

The IMF's annual review of the Nigerian economy highlighted that "conditions for many Nigerians remain difficult." Beyond economic policies, the fund identified widespread insecurity, particularly in the northern regions where much of the country's food is produced, as a major risk to both people and economic activity. Inflation has also accelerated, reaching a five-month high of 15.7 percent in April, partly attributed to higher fuel prices influenced by global events.

While increased global prices for food, fertilizer, and fuel could boost Nigeria's revenues as Africa's largest oil producer, the IMF warned of intensified inflationary pressures on poor households. This could potentially aggravate poverty and food insecurity, posing a significant challenge as President Tinubu seeks re-election in January.

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Still, conditions for many Nigerians remain difficult.