Nigeria's Economy to Grow 4.2% in H2 2026, But Reform Gains Haven't Reached Households, PwC Says

Nigeria's economy is forecast to expand by 4.2% in the latter half of 2026, propelled by higher crude oil output and robust sector performance, according to PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC).

The "Unlocking Nigeria’s Reform Dividend: From Macroeconomic Stabilisation to Inclusive Growth" report highlights significant progress in macroeconomic stability, including a more stable foreign exchange market, moderating inflation, and increased capital inflows. However, PwC cautions that persistent structural constraints and the immediate costs associated with reforms are limiting the benefits for ordinary Nigerians and businesses.

Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 3.89% in the first quarter of 2026, up from 3.13% in the same period last year. Key drivers were the ICT sector, which grew by 10.98%, followed by Finance and Insurance (8.54%), Construction (6.38%), and Agriculture (3.15%).

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Macroeconomic stabilisation has improved, but structural constraints and reform-transition pressures have moderated the pace of inclusive growth.

Despite these gains, some sectors are underperforming. Electricity output contracted by 15.30% due to lower generation availability, and the Oil & Gas sector saw only a modest 2.57% growth. Trade and Real Estate also experienced sluggish growth, attributed to high operational costs.

Inflation saw a slight decrease, with headline inflation at 15.91% in June 2026. However, food inflation increased to 17.52%, driven by rising prices for staples like tomatoes, pepper, and beef. PwC recommends measures to boost agricultural productivity, improve storage and logistics, and reduce the cost of nutritious food.

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The cost of a healthy diet increased by 4.68 per cent year-on-year to N1,589 per adult per day in April 2026, from N1,518.