Nigeria's election campaign begins with Tinubu facing a reform test

Shukurat Oyedele, a shop owner in Ilorin, Nigeria, opens her business daily despite dwindling customers. Prices for essential goods have more than doubled in two years, forcing customers to cut back and significantly reducing her profits. Her struggle reflects the economic hardship many Nigerians face, posing a critical challenge for President Bola Tinubu as the nation gears up for the 2027 presidential election.

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People are interested in buying the things I sell, but they have become really expensive. Once they check their pockets and see that they cannot afford it, they won’t buy it no matter how much they like it, except if they can’t do without it.

Tinubu's administration implemented significant economic reforms shortly after he took office in 2023. These included the removal of the costly fuel subsidy and the introduction of foreign-exchange reforms designed to allow the naira to trade more freely. The stated goals were to strengthen public finances, attract foreign investment, and stabilize Nigeria's economy.

These measures have garnered support from international investors and economists who have long advocated for addressing the country's deep-seated structural economic issues. However, the benefits of such reforms often take time to reach ordinary households, while the costs are felt immediately. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has noted improvements in Nigeria's macroeconomic stability but cautioned that living conditions remain challenging for a large segment of the population.

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I just keep opening the shop every day, so I wouldn’t shut down totally. The market is not what it used to be.

For many Nigerian households, the immediate consequences have been stark: higher food prices, increased transportation costs, and a general decline in purchasing power. "The government has to convince Nigerians that those gains will eventually translate into better lives, and give them a credible reason to wait for that to happen," said Sekinat Ojeniyi, a senior analyst at Africa Practice. "That is a much harder political proposition when people have already made significant sacrifices." Tinubu's administration must now persuade voters to endure the ongoing economic sacrifices by demonstrating that the reforms will eventually yield tangible benefits for their lives.

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The government has to convince Nigerians that those gains will eventually translate into better lives, and give them a credible reason to wait for that to happen. That is a much harder political proposition when people have already made significant sacrifices.