Nigeria's foreign debt to hit $72.6bn by 2027: IMF

Nigeria's public external debt is forecast to surge by $20.7 billion, reaching $72.6 billion by 2027, the year of the country's next presidential election, the International Monetary Fund reported. The IMF's 2026 Article IV Consultation report projects a 39.9 percent increase in public external debt from $51.9 billion in 2025 to $72.6 billion within two years.

This projected rise fuels concerns over Nigeria's growing debt burden, even as macroeconomic stability shows recent improvements. The IMF specifically warned that increased spending pressures, driven by high poverty levels, food insecurity, and the election cycle, could exacerbate fiscal deficits and elevate borrowing requirements. "Spending pressures from elevated poverty and food insecurity, including in the run-up to the elections, could widen fiscal deficit and increase financing needs," the Fund stated.

The IMF's projections indicate that Nigeria's total external debt, encompassing both public and private sector obligations, will climb from $109.3 billion in 2025 to $132.0 billion by 2027. This represents an increase of $22.7 billion over the two-year period, with a substantial $12.7 billion of that rise occurring in 2027 alone.

Public external debt is expected to remain a significant portion of the economy, rising from 17.9 percent of GDP in 2025 to 18.7 percent in 2027. As a share of exports, it is projected to grow from 82.9 percent in 2025 to 104.3 percent by 2027. Debt service indicators are also set to worsen, with public external debt service due increasing from 8.1 percent of exports in 2025 to 8.8 percent in 2027. Interest payments on public debt are forecast to rise from $2 billion in 2025 to $3 billion by 2027. The Federal Government's debt servicing costs are anticipated to continue consuming more than half of its revenue, projected at 52.4 percent in 2027.

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Spending pressures from elevated poverty and food insecurity, including in the run-up to the elections, could widen fiscal deficit and increase financing needs.