Nigeria's oil revenue dilemma: A call to revisit Atiku Abubakar's 2011 proposal

Former Nigerian Vice President Atiku Abubakar presented a compelling economic strategy during his 2011 presidential campaign, proposing that oil revenue, known for its volatility, should be exclusively channeled into investments. This plan aimed to build long-term capacity by funding infrastructure, security, education, and health, while recurrent expenditure would be covered by non-oil revenue. Abubakar also urged state governments to develop timelines for reducing their dependence on oil revenue, drawing a parallel to the historical development achieved by regional governments without oil income.

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Oil revenue is highly volatile and exhaustible. We must have a plan to wisely use it to build capacity for the future, invest in infrastructure and in the people, and not consume it today.

Olusegun Adeniyi, the author, recalls this proposal as the most fundamental statement he had heard from any Nigerian politician regarding economic redirection and public finance sustainability. He expresses disappointment that this idea did not become a central theme in the electioneering campaign, with political contenders and the media failing to engage with it. Adeniyi believes that reopening this debate now, after the elections, is crucial for the nation's future.

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We would also encourage all state governments to set an agenda and timeline within which they would no longer depend on oil revenue for recurrent expenditure.

Adeniyi's reflection on Abubakar's proposal stems from his return to Nigeria in June 2011, after a fellowship in the United States, following the death of President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua. He had initially planned a series of articles on Abubakar's formula but discontinued the series after receiving feedback that it appeared to be an early launch of Abubakar's 2015 presidential campaign. Despite this, Adeniyi commends Abubakar for consistently bringing critical national issues to the forefront during election seasons.

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Our regional governments did not get oil revenue but massively developed the country. We must return to the responsible path.

Furthermore, Adeniyi points to Abubakar's advocacy for restructuring the country before and after the 2015 election as another example of his engagement with fundamental national challenges. Abubakar argued that the excessive concentration of power and resources at the center was stifling Nigeria's progress. This consistent focus on vital national debates underscores the importance of revisiting Abubakar's 2011 proposal as a potential roadmap for sustainable economic development and diversification.

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Although I was not in the country at the period Atiku made the proposition, I thought it would set the agenda for the electioneering campaign.