Nightmare scenario in Washington: Russia attacks Romania in 2028 as the US hesitates to respond

The scenario begins in 2028, with the war in Ukraine stalled and Russia seeking to fracture Europe by attacking Moldova. During the simulation, a Russian drone strikes a fuel depot in Romania, a NATO member, causing civilian casualties. The central question is how the United States would respond.

The exercise, “World War Next,” was organized by Cornell University’s Brooks Institute and the Rockefeller Foundation. Its participants included US lawmakers, former military personnel, diplomats and intelligence officials. Their conclusion was bleak: the American response was weak, Europe was divided, and NATO’s collective-defense commitment under Article 5 had effectively lost force.

Participants judged that American public opinion would not support a firm response. Without Washington’s involvement, they said, Europe would remain fragmented and unable to coordinate. Washington Post journalist David Ignatius, who attended the exercise on condition that the participants’ identities remain undisclosed, called it the clearest demonstration yet that the security structure protecting the United States and Europe for eight decades is rapidly eroding. He said the Trump administration was actively contributing to that breakdown.

The article presents the fictional scenario alongside what it describes as an increasingly aggressive hybrid war. A Washington-based strategic consultancy, TD International, identified 63 incidents attributed to Russia against European targets since March. These included 43 drone incursions or other airspace violations, six sabotage operations or plans, six cyber or electronic attacks, and five hostile maritime incidents.

The article says the pressure on Europe has intensified alongside harder missile attacks on Kyiv. Russian President Vladimir Putin recently rejected the idea of negotiations with Ukraine, shortly after CIA Director John Ratcliffe traveled to Moscow to warn Russian counterparts that the war had reached a stalemate. An unnamed US official said Ratcliffe’s visit was intended to offer, but the supplied text ends before completing the account.

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the clearest demonstration yet that the security architecture that protected the United States and Europe for eight decades is rapidly eroding