No Chance of Overtaking on the Bend? Huawei’s AI Computing Power Is a Fraction of Nvidia’s, Epoch AI Says

Huawei is investing heavily in semiconductor self-reliance and carrying China’s ambitions for domestic AI chips. But Epoch AI has delivered a blunt assessment of its chances of catching Nvidia by 2030: “Almost certainly not.”

The AI research group said its latest analysis examined Huawei’s chip roadmap and supply chain, including the Ascend 950, its 3D-stacking plans and China’s ability to supply high-bandwidth memory, or HBM. Epoch AI estimates that Huawei’s AI computing output will reach less than 4% of Nvidia’s in 2026.

The gap could widen if Huawei must rely on domestically produced Chinese HBM. Under that scenario, Huawei’s output could equal only about 1% of Nvidia’s by 2028, Epoch AI said.

Epoch AI’s market data, updated on Aug. 27, estimated that Nvidia accounted for 68% of AI computing power from chips sold or shipped in the fourth quarter of 2025. Google held 19%, while Amazon and AMD each had 5%. Huawei accounted for about 3%, and Cambricon for less than 1%.

The research group cautioned that a falling market share does not necessarily mean a company’s absolute shipments or output are declining. Total computing power from all tracked AI chip designers has grown by about 3.3 times annually since 2022, meaning supplies can remain substantial or continue rising even as a company’s share falls.

China’s 2017 national AI development plan set 2030 as a key target, calling for the country’s AI theory, technology and applications to reach a world-leading level and for China to become a major global AI innovation center. Epoch AI’s assessment suggests Huawei still faces a long road to help meet that ambition.