No piece of paper is going to keep Israel from attacking Iran if red lines are crossed - comment

Israel has successfully bombed Iran's nuclear weapons program multiple times since October 2024, a feat many experts previously deemed impossible. These strikes, including three on ballistic missile and nuclear sites and two specifically targeting nuclear facilities, have significantly degraded Iran's capabilities.

For decades, experts argued that bombing Iran's nuclear program was unfeasible due to its widespread distribution across numerous locations, unlike the more concentrated programs in Iraq and Syria that Israel had previously targeted. Concerns also included the risks to pilots from long-distance flights requiring midair refueling, and the potential for massive retaliation from Hezbollah, Hamas, and other regional militias.

Despite these challenges, Israel conducted the strikes, resulting in substantial damage to Iran's nuclear infrastructure. Even without a new agreement, Iran has made no significant progress in rebuilding its program over the past year. This degradation forms a critical backdrop to ongoing negotiations for a new US-Iran deal.

While the specifics of any new deal remain subject to negotiation, it is highly probable that Iran's 60% enriched uranium will be transferred out of the country or diluted. Furthermore, Iran is expected to freeze its uranium enrichment activities for 15 to 20 years. The deal is unlikely to mandate the dismantling of existing nuclear facilities, as many have already been heavily bombed.