North Korea endured decades of sanctions, raising doubts about US pressure on Iran

Washington has launched what the White House calls its largest financial offensive against an adversary, aiming to cut Iran’s economic lifelines and force it to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz and return to negotiations. The Trump administration has named the campaign “Operation Economic Outcast.”

But the experience of other sanctioned governments offers little confidence that economic pain alone will produce a change in Tehran’s position. A Wall Street Journal analysis said authoritarian regimes have survived Western pressure for years, and sometimes decades, through violence, economic adaptation and political repression.

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The world’s best ability to respond to crises.

Sanctions can push economic activity underground and expand black markets. They can also give authoritarian leaders an opportunity to portray outside pressure as a reason for internal unity. Iran has adapted to decades of sanctions by increasing trade with neighboring countries. The Wall Street Journal said it had also worked with China to build a separate financial network that bypasses the US-led system and weakens Washington’s ability to enforce sanctions.

North Korea stands out as one of the clearest examples. It has faced some of the world’s toughest sanctions for decades, intended to pressure it to abandon its nuclear weapons and long-range missile programs. Yet it has developed ways to survive, including sending troops to Russia in exchange for payment and using elite cyber units to steal billions of dollars in cryptocurrency. While North Korea once signaled a willingness to give up its nuclear program in return for sanctions relief, the analysis concluded that it no longer does so.

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May not be the most effective tool on its own.

A North Korean defector, Yang Il-chul, described people who had adapted over many years to shortages of food, fuel and electricity as having “the world’s best ability to respond to crises.” Russia also redirected trade toward non-Western countries after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Its GDP fell 1.4% in the first year of sanctions before recovering quickly, while President Vladimir Putin’s power base remained firm.

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The United States can clearly inflict pain.

Venezuela’s economy contracted by about 75% during Nicolás Maduro’s rule, yet he retained power until his arrest by US forces, according to the article. Cuba’s leadership has also endured more than 60 years of US sanctions and severe economic hardship.

The analysis acknowledged that economic pressure has succeeded in some cases, but said those outcomes usually involved diplomatic pressure or military and political change as well. Aaron Arnold, a Royal United Services Institute researcher and former monitor of UN sanctions on North Korea, said economic leverage “may not be the most effective tool on its own.” Virginia Tech economist Javad Salehi-Isfahani said the United States could clearly inflict pain, but he did not expect the pressure to create greater incentives for the Iranian government to compromise.

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I do not expect this pressure to lead to greater pressure on the Iranian government to compromise.