North Korea-US summit could come as early as November or December, Trump may invite Kim to G20

A U.S.-North Korea summit could take place as early as November or December, with Donald Trump potentially inviting Kim Jong Un to the G20 summit in Miami, according to two analysts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

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In my view, the earliest window is between November and the G20. That is the earliest possibility. More likely is after both events have taken place.

Vincent Brooks, a former commander of U.S. Forces Korea, said the earliest opportunity would come between the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shenzhen in November and the G20 meeting in Florida in December. He said a summit after both events appeared more likely. If Trump moves quickly, Brooks warned, the meeting could contain little substance and resemble the 2019 Panmunjom encounter more than the Hanoi summit.

Victor Cha, CSIS’s Korea chair, also saw a possible meeting in November or December. He said both leaders favored summits that offered a strong visual message, and suggested Trump could use a G20 invitation to draw global attention to the United States.

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The faster it is held, the more performative the summit will be. It would be much closer to a Panmunjom scene than Hanoi.

The two analysts agreed that Pyongyang might be willing to engage with Washington, but they differed over denuclearization. Brooks said North Korea had not closed the door to negotiations and pointed to its more restrained language toward the United States compared with its repeated insults toward South Korea. Cha cited North Korea’s relations with China and Russia, U.S. military action in Venezuela, changes in the South Korea-U.S. alliance and the possibility of a South Korean nuclear-powered submarine as reasons for talks.

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I think there are real reasons North Korea might want a meeting with the United States.

Cha said Trump might accept North Korea’s status as a nuclear weapons state, while Brooks rejected the view that denuclearization was impossible, even if it appeared unlikely in the near term. Brooks also called Trump’s unilateral reduction of joint military exercises “extremely disrespectful” to the alliance and said uncertainty in U.S. policy was driving debate in South Korea and Japan about independent deterrence.

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The president has the authority, but it was an alliance exercise, and that unilateral decision was honestly extremely disrespectful to the alliance.