Novartis suffers setback in heart disease prevention, but hope emerges elsewhere

Novartis shares fell 3% to 125.74 Swiss francs by midday Monday after the Basel-based pharmaceutical company reported a disappointing clinical-trial result. The setback stands out after months of positive news for the company.

The failed treatment was pelacarsen, which Novartis had been developing to prevent cardiovascular disease by lowering lipoprotein(a), or Lp(a). Elevated Lp(a) can contribute to unwanted plaque formation and inflammation in the arteries. Novartis estimates that about 20% of the global population has elevated levels, rising to almost 33% among people who have already experienced cardiovascular disease.

The drug failed in a large final-stage phase 3 study, performing no better than a placebo. Zurich Cantonal Bank analysts summarized the result bluntly: “Pelacarsen does not work.” They had expected the drug to generate peak annual sales of $1.3 billion. Morgan Stanley had estimated $1.5 billion.

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Pelacarsen does not work

Those forecasts placed pelacarsen in potential blockbuster territory, defined in the article as annual sales of at least $1 billion. Yet Morgan Stanley analysts said Monday that the development setback should be manageable for Novartis.

The company needs a successor to Entresto, its leading treatment for heart failure. Entresto generated $7.7 billion in revenue last year, making it Novartis’ best-selling drug, but its patent protection has ended and sales are expected to fall sharply in the coming years.

Novartis has recently received more encouraging news from another therapeutic area. Last week, shares reached a record above 132 Swiss francs after promising data from research into a new treatment for multiple sclerosis. That research, rather than heart medicine, may offer the company a more likely replacement for Entresto, the article says.

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Manageable