Obama-era nuclear deal may be best case scenario for US, Iran peace talks, Israeli expert warns

The most favorable outcome for the United States and Iran in nuclear negotiations might mirror the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) established during the Obama administration, according to Avner Vilan, a former senior defense official and Iranian nuclear expert.

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At best, we will get an agreement like Obama’s deal (the JCPOA). There is a period in which the Iranians do not advance toward a nuclear weapon and are under supervision, which is fine. But regarding ballistic missiles, what we hit, we hit. They were not part of the agreement, and the Iranians will be able to take the money they receive and build themselves up.

Vilan explained that while such an agreement could temporarily halt Iran's advancement toward nuclear weapons and implement supervision, it would likely leave Iran's ballistic missile program untouched. He cautioned that any financial relief Iran receives could be used to bolster its capabilities. "At best, we will get an agreement like Obama’s deal (the JCPOA)," Vilan told 103FM. "There is a period in which the Iranians do not advance toward a nuclear weapon and are under supervision, which is fine. But regarding ballistic missiles, what we hit, we hit. They were not part of the agreement, and the Iranians will be able to take the money they receive and build themselves up."

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The Iranians need pressure relief.

Emerging discussions between the US and Iran could lead to a partial agreement, potentially reopening the Strait of Hormuz and easing pressure on Tehran, while deferring the nuclear issue. Vilan noted that reopening Hormuz appears to be the most immediate concern for Iran, as it requires financial relief. "The Iranians need pressure relief," he stated. A potential framework could involve the release of frozen Iranian funds, followed by a 60-day period for nuclear program talks. Iran would then decide whether to accept a deal, possibly including the removal of enriched uranium in exchange for sanctions relief.

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Regime change does not look like it is going to happen. On the contrary, we are even strengthening it. It is beginning to receive money.

However, Vilan expressed concern that such economic concessions could inadvertently strengthen the Iranian regime. "Regime change does not look like it is going to happen. On the contrary, we are even strengthening it. It is beginning to receive money," he warned. He emphasized that addressing Iran's 60% uranium enrichment is crucial but insufficient for a professionally sound nuclear deal. A comprehensive agreement, he argued, must ensure Iran has no access to nuclear material for a bomb, that its centrifuges are supervised, and that it lacks fortified enrichment sites.

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We need to make sure Iran has no path to advance toward nuclear material for a bomb.