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Analysts are expressing concern that Iran may be preparing to exert further pressure on global shipping by leveraging its Houthi allies to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. This narrow waterway, crucial for linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, is a key transit point for Saudi oil exports and a significant portion of international maritime traffic.

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If the current situation aggravates, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Strait of Hormuz will be closed in an operational alliance. Oil prices would then skyrocket to $200 a barrel in a dreadful shock.

The potential closure of Bab el-Mandeb, following disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, could significantly escalate regional tensions and impact global energy markets. A senior Yemeni official warned that the country's armed forces were prepared to close the strait if Saudi Arabia continued its attacks on Yemen. Mohammed al-Farah, a member of the Houthi movement's political bureau, stated that such an action could send oil prices soaring to $200 a barrel.

Fawaz Gerges, a Middle East scholar, noted that Iran is demonstrating its ability to threaten both chokepoints simultaneously, transforming the conflict into a broader challenge to global energy trade routes. He suggested that Tehran is escalating its actions both locally and broadly, signaling that Bab el-Mandeb, in addition to Hormuz, is at risk.

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Iran is willing to go all the way.

This situation raises fears of "mission creep," where each side incrementally raises the stakes without engaging in all-out confrontation. As the conflict expands from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea, the growing threat to trade and energy supplies could compel Washington and Tehran to return to negotiations before these critical maritime passages become a central battleground.

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Now (Tehran) is escalating both near and wide. The message is that not only Hormuz, but Bab al-Mandab, is at risk.