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The world is likely to experience continued record-breaking global average temperatures for at least the next four years, the United Nations' World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned Thursday. The agency highlighted that all of the 11 hottest individual years on record have occurred since 2015, and this trend is projected to persist, with a new hottest year "likely" before 2031.

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Global average temperatures are likely to continue at or near record levels in the next five years.

Of significant concern is the potential for the planet to cross a critical climate threshold. The WMO stated there is a 75 percent chance that the average global temperature between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 1.5 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average. This outlook comes as parts of western Europe are currently experiencing a "heat dome," with temperature records already being broken for May in Britain and France.

Adding to the warming trend, an El Niño phenomenon is predicted for the end of 2026. According to Leon Hermanson, lead author of the WMO's Global Annual-to-Decadal Update, this natural climate event increases the likelihood that 2027 will become the next record-breaking year. El Niño, which warms surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, contributed to making 2023 the second-hottest year and 2024 the all-time hottest, approximately 1.55C above pre-industrial levels.

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There is an El Nino predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year.

The WMO's projections indicate that annual global mean near-surface temperatures from 2026 to 2030 are expected to range between 1.3C and 1.9C above the pre-industrial average. While it is considered highly unlikely that any single year will exceed 2C above this baseline in the next five years, the WMO also noted a 91 percent chance that global average temperatures will temporarily surpass the 1.5C mark at least once between 2026 and 2030. The 1.5C limit is a key target of the 2015 Paris climate accords, aimed at preventing the most severe impacts of climate change.

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Annual global mean near-surface temperatures during 2026-2030 are predicted to range between 1.3C and 1.9C above the 1850-1900 average.