Oil prices mixed as Vance warning fuels ceasefire doubts

International oil prices experienced a mixed performance on Thursday, June 18, 2026, as market concerns resurfaced regarding the durability of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement. The uncertainty was amplified after U.S. Vice President JD Vance issued a warning to Israel against escalating its actions against Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Brent crude futures settled at $79.85 per barrel, marking a modest increase of $0.30, or 0.38%. In contrast, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures saw a slight decline, closing at $76.60 per barrel, down $0.19, or 0.25%.

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Vance's remarks targeting Israel could potentially make the situation tense again. I think even the slightest disruption will be reflected in the market.

John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital, commented that Vance's remarks directed at Israel could potentially reignite tensions. He noted that even minor disruptions could impact the market. Prior to Vance's statement, Brent crude had fallen to its lowest level since March 2, and WTI had reached its lowest point since March 4.

The market's focus is expected to remain on developments in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil transport, which previously handled about 20% of the world's oil shipments before the conflict. Kilduff emphasized that the market has already priced in the full restoration of oil flow through the strait, and any outcome less than that would be problematic. Analysts anticipate a gradual recovery in oil traffic, with Goldman Sachs projecting a return to pre-war export levels by the end of July and full production recovery by October, contingent on increased flow through the Strait of Hormuz.

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The market has already factored in the full restoration of oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz. Any outcome less than full restoration will be a problem.