Older, Educated Right-Wing Voters Increasingly Drawn to France's National Rally

France's National Rally (RN) party has undergone a significant transformation, evolving from a protest movement into a dominant political force, according to a new analysis by political scientist Pascal Perrineau. His study, commissioned by the Foundation for Political Innovation (Fondapol), charts the RN's electoral trajectory over the two Macron presidencies (2017-2027).

Perrineau highlights the party's exponential growth, noting its fluctuating but often strong performance under Jean-Marie Le Pen, including a notable second-place finish in the 2002 presidential election. However, it was under Marine Le Pen's leadership, starting in 2011, that the party entered a phase of consistent progression. Electoral scores rose steadily from 17.9% in 2012 to 23.2% in 2022.

The analysis points to a symbolic threshold being crossed in the 2024 European elections, where the RN secured 31.4% of the vote. This momentum continued into the snap legislative elections, where the RN and its allies garnered 33.2% in the first round. These results indicate a deepening and broadening of the party's appeal beyond its traditional base.

Notably, the study suggests a shift in the RN's core support, attracting a segment of the right-wing electorate that is older and more educated. This demographic evolution, coupled with consistent electoral gains, positions the National Rally as a major player in contemporary French politics, challenging established parties and reshaping the political landscape.

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From a protest party to a dominant party.