Older people now outnumber young children, and South Korea is projected to be the world’s oldest country by 2060

People aged 65 and over already outnumbered children aged five and under worldwide last year for the first time in human history, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s report Aging World: 2025. The gap is expected to widen in the coming years.

The report counted 852 million older people in 2025, equal to 10.5% of the global population of 8.132 billion. By 2060, the population aged 65 and over is projected to more than double to 2 billion, or 19.6% of the world’s total. The old-age dependency ratio is expected to rise from 16.1 older people for every 100 working-age people in 2025 to 32.1 in 2060.

South Korea is projected to age faster than any other country. Its population aged 65 and over is expected to increase from 20.3% in 2025 to 41% in 2060, ahead of Japan at 38.8% and China at 34.6%. The country’s median age is projected to rise from 46 to 59.2, while the share aged 80 and over increases from 4.8% to 18.3%. South Korea’s total population is expected to fall from 52.19 million last year to 46.95 million in 2060.

The report also points to severe elderly poverty in South Korea. In 2020, 40.5% of people aged 66 and over lived in poverty, the highest level among OECD members cited in the report. The gap between elderly poverty and poverty across the overall population exceeded 25 percentage points, also the widest among the countries studied. The report attributed the problem to the late introduction of the national pension, limited coverage and benefits, longer life expectancy and early retirement linked to seniority-based wages.

South Korea’s old-age dependency ratio is projected to climb from 29.5 older people per 100 working-age people last year to 81.6 in 2060. That would mean about 1.2 working-age people supporting one older person, compared with a projected global ratio of 32.1 to 100.

The report said falling fertility is a major reason ageing is accelerating. In 2023, 71% of the world’s population lived in countries with fertility below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman, up from 45% in 2013. It also projected that global life expectancy will rise from 73.5 years in 2025 to 78.1 in 2060, while the number of people with dementia could increase from 55 million to 139 million by 2050.

Ageing will put pressure on public finances and care systems. Among OECD members, government health spending is projected to rise by 2.6% of GDP over the next decade, twice the expected 1.3% increase in government revenue. Unpaid care from family and friends remains the main form of long-term care for older people worldwide, and women make up three of every five caregivers aged over 50 in many OECD countries.

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Last year, the older population surpassed the youngest age group in its share of the total population. This crossover between the youngest and oldest age groups is the first such event in human history, and the gap is expected to widen further in the coming years.