OPEC+ keeps October oil production targets unchanged

OPEC+ has left its October oil production policy unchanged, saying its members first need to agree on new quotas before deciding what comes next.

The decision came as the Iran war continued to disrupt oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, reducing the producer group's influence over prices and market share. Seven core members attended Sunday's meeting: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman.

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OPEC currently has very limited power over the physical oil market.

In August, OPEC+ approved a production increase for September, completing the phased rollback of a 1.65 million-barrel-per-day supply cut agreed in 2023. But despite those increases, the 21-country group still produces well below its targets because of the war.

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The group can change production targets on paper, but it cannot guarantee that those barrels will be produced or actually reach the market.

“OPEC currently has very limited power over the physical oil market,” said Jorge Leon of Rystad Energy. “The group can change production targets on paper, but it cannot guarantee that those barrels will be produced or actually reach the market.”

Leon said attention was shifting from monthly production changes to the debate over 2027. OPEC+ still has another layer of cuts covering most members through the end of 2026. Before unwinding those cuts, it must assess members' production capacity and establish the baselines that will determine future quotas. The debate is expected later in 2026, and the group may pause output increases during the fourth quarter. Sunday's statement did not address policy beyond October. The seven countries will meet again on Oct. 4.

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The focus now shifts away from monthly production adjustments and towards the much more consequential debate over 2027.