Opinion: Election won't be decided by TikTok, researcher argues

The notion that TikTok will be the deciding factor in the upcoming election is an oversimplification, according to media researcher Marie Grusell. Writing in Dagens Nyheter, Grusell contends that this focus on a single platform echoes a recurring pattern where new communication channels, from the internet and blogs to Facebook and Twitter, have been similarly identified as election-altering forces.

Grusell argues that while social media platforms undoubtedly play a role, their primary influence lies not in directly dictating votes, but in shaping which issues gain public attention and dominate the discourse. The connection between visibility on a platform and actual voting outcomes is often weak, and the emphasis on reach and viral content can obscure more subtle forms of political influence.

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You can relax, the election will not be decided on TikTok.

"When we ask if social media 'decides the election,' we often assume the influence must be direct, clear, and measurable," Grusell writes. "But political influence rarely works that way. It is more often indirect – concerning which substantive issues recur, how they are formulated, and how they spread over time."

The researcher stresses that understanding how issues gain prominence is crucial, as parties often have varying levels of public trust in different policy areas. Focusing solely on easily quantifiable metrics like follower counts or viral clips risks overlooking the more significant, albeit less measurable, impact of agenda-setting. The true influence, she suggests, lies in understanding which issues and perspectives manage to dominate the public conversation.

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When we ask if social media 'decides the election,' we often assume the influence must be direct, clear, and measurable. But political influence rarely works that way. It is more often indirect – concerning which substantive issues recur, how they are formulated, and how they spread over time.