Opta predicts 35% chance for South Korea to reach Round of 16, with Switzerland as potential opponent

South Korea has a 35% chance of reaching the Round of 16 in the 2026 World Cup, according to a projection by sports statistics firm Opta. The firm released its predictions for each participating nation's advancement probabilities, incorporating results from the tournament thus far.

Despite a challenging start in Group A, where they secured a 2-1 comeback victory against Czechia but then suffered a 0-1 defeat to Mexico, South Korea maintains a high probability of advancing to the Round of 32. Opta estimates this chance at over 90%, specifically 91%.

Their path to the next stage appears favorable. South Korea will secure a spot in the Round of 32 by drawing their final group match against South Africa. Even a loss could see them advance if Mexico defeats Czechia, placing South Korea third in the group. Opta predicts South Korea will finish second in their group.

Should South Korea secure second place, their predicted opponent in the Round of 32 is Switzerland, the second-place team from Group B. However, Opta anticipates Switzerland will have the upper hand in this potential matchup, leading to the lower 35% probability for South Korea's advancement to the Round of 16.