Osun 2026: Tinubu's dilemma as election tests his authority

President Bola Tinubu faces a complex political test in the upcoming Osun State governorship election, where the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) seeks to reclaim the state from incumbent Governor Ademola Adeleke of the Accord Party. The election has transcended a typical off-cycle contest, becoming a crucial measure of Tinubu's authority within the APC and his capacity to navigate competing interests.

Ordinarily, the president's allegiance would be clear, given his ancestral ties to Iragbiji, the hometown of his cousin and close political ally, former Governor Gboyega Oyetola. Oyetola, now Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, remains a significant force in the APC, which has nominated Bola Oyebamiji to challenge Adeleke.

However, Osun's political landscape is complicated by Governor Adeleke's surprisingly cordial relationship with President Tinubu, despite belonging to an opposition party. This relationship intensified last year when Adeleke's family met with Tinubu, fueling speculation about a potential defection to the APC. This move was met with strong resistance from influential Osun APC leaders, who argued it would disadvantage loyal party members.

Despite public statements from Osun APC figures like Tajudeen Lawal, who called Adeleke a "Trojan horse," and assurances from Oyebamiji that he is Tinubu's sole anointed candidate, campaign billboards have featured images of both Tinubu and Adeleke. This has fueled debate about the president's true stance in an election that has become a significant indicator of his political capital and leadership within the APC.