Pakistan's proposed new provinces: Will it be the people's will or the powers that be?

Talk of 'winds of change' and administrative restructuring to create new provinces in Pakistan is swirling, with well-briefed media and cabinet ministers suggesting the move is inevitable and imminent. However, the true origin of these 'winds' is questioned, with speculation that it may be driven by the powers that be rather than the will of the people. While federal ministers from the ruling PML-N deny public knowledge of the plan, the PPP has vowed to resist it. Notably, there has been no debate on the issue in parliament or provincial assemblies, leading to concerns that lawmakers will be expected to rubber-stamp a pre-prepared amendment, similar to previous constitutional changes.

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there is much talk of the ‘winds of change’, but where are they blowing from?

The interior minister's public statement last month confirmed a change was coming, which he framed as an indictment of the political order and a call for structural reform. A subsequent statement from the military spokesman further shaped the emerging plan, triggering intense public debate over its obscure contours. Suggestions range from new administrative units to devolution, yet even proponents admit to lacking a clear framework for implementation. The collapse of the system is attributed to the denial of democratic rights, and critics argue that any attempt to salvage it through patchwork, like redrawing administrative units, will fail.

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We are told it is ‘the will of the people’ and that anyone who opposes it will be swept aside.

Any structural reform, the article contends, is inseparable from democracy. Changes imposed by extra-constitutional forces are predicted to worsen chaos and fuel instability. Given the existing power imbalance favoring the establishment, resistance from a civilian leadership of questionable legitimacy appears unlikely. The article warns that the 26th and 27th Amendments have already damaged the Constitution by undermining judicial independence, and a conceived 28th amendment would destroy the remaining semblance of democracy. The creation of new administrative units and devolution of power has long been a point of contention.

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One cannot help but wonder whether it is really the will of the people or that of the powers that be.