Panama Canal may cut ship traffic further as El Niño strengthens

The Panama Canal could cut ship traffic again if a strengthening El Niño deepens the country’s drought, putting further pressure on one of the world’s busiest maritime routes.

Ilya Espino de Marotta, the new administrator of the Panama Canal Authority, said the limits could be tightened if the drought does not ease. The canal already reduced its daily allowance from 36 ships to 34 on September 4, with another reduction to 32 scheduled for September 15.

Espino said the number could fall to “29 or something similar” in February or March. Rainfall in September, October and November, which she described as the three critical months, will determine whether further reductions become necessary in January, February or March.

“

29 or something similar

The restrictions are not expected to match the severity of the 2023-24 drought, when daily crossings fell as low as 22. The canal handles about 5 percent of global maritime trade, making any prolonged reduction significant for shipping through the route.

The canal’s locks require freshwater to raise and lower vessels between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Most of that water comes from the Gatun and Alajuela lakes, which depend on rainfall. An average transit uses about 200 million liters of water, and levels in both reservoirs have already fallen with the arrival of El Niño.

Authorities have also lowered the maximum permitted draft from 15.2 meters to 14.6 meters. A lower draft limit means ships must sail with less depth below the waterline. The current El Niño is expected to be the strongest since record-keeping began four decades ago.

“

Depending on how much rain falls in September, October and November, the three critical months, that will determine whether I need to lower any slots further in January, February or March.