People loved moving to Tasmania during the pandemic — but not anymore

Tasmania was a magnet for people between 2016 and 2021, adding nearly 50,000 residents and leading the nation in population growth rates. This influx transformed the state into a desirable destination.

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Tasmania's population growth rate is actually the lowest it's been this century.

But the tide has turned. By September 2025, Tasmania's annual growth rate had dwindled to a mere 0.3%, the lowest in Australia this century, according to demographer Lisa Denny. The Centre for Population forecasts that by 2028-29, Tasmania could become the first Australian state to experience natural population decline, where deaths outnumber births.

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When a large majority of our young people in Tasmania are actually born overseas and likely to be on temporary visas in Tasmania, it's unlikely that they are going to be in family formation decision-making processes.

This demographic shift presents a significant economic risk. Tasmanian Treasury papers warn that low or declining population growth could exacerbate existing challenges, including skill shortages and an aging population. The future relies heavily on overseas migration, but a large proportion of young migrants on temporary visas may not contribute to family formation decisions, potentially limiting long-term growth.

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Tasmania's Treasury warns if population growth remains low or even declines, it could be a risk to the economy.

For some, like Milly Willemsen and Nick Wagner, the move to Tasmania in 2018 was a success. Arriving with little, they worked hard, bought an affordable house, and built a life with two children. They describe Burnie as reminiscent of Melbourne in the 90s, with a strong community feel. However, others, like 22-year-old Ellie Warmbrunn, have left Tasmania seeking opportunities elsewhere, finding work and study on the Gold Coast.

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On the mainland, you would not have been able to do this.