Peru runoff too close to call, markets nervous as vote count nears completion

Peru is once again on the edge of a razor-thin presidential race, with a technical tie between conservative Keiko Fujimori and progressive Roberto Sánchez after 94% of votes were counted. The difference stands at a mere 7,800 votes, marking the eighth close runoff in recent political history.

This political uncertainty has already impacted the markets. Lima's stock exchange fell 1.53% at the start of trading, and Peruvian companies listed in the U.S. also saw declines. The Peruvian sol depreciated by 1.70%. "Markets are facing real uncertainty" due to the exceptionally tight race, according to Andrés Abadía, chief Latin America economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

The official count from the National Electoral Processes Office (ONPE) shows Fujimori with 49.98% and Sánchez with 50.02%. The narrow margin suggests a prolonged and tense final count, echoing past close elections. In 2016, Pedro Pablo Kuczynski narrowly defeated Fujimori by just 41,057 votes, and in 2021, Pedro Castillo beat her by 44,263 votes.

Roberto Burneo, head of the National Jury of Elections, warned that the final result could take up to 30 days and urged citizens to remain calm. The political climate is further strained by polarized narratives and premature victory celebrations from both camps. This prolonged uncertainty exacerbates the sense of institutional fragility in a country that has experienced a decade of instability.

Both candidates have urged caution, though with different tones. Fujimori stated, "As of now, there is no winner in this contest," calling for patience. Sánchez, however, offered a more celebratory message, thanking indigenous peoples and vulnerable sectors for supporting a "government for the people," while still awaiting the official count.