Pipelines faced key challenges in the past. Can Alberta’s overcome them?

A new pipeline proposal aiming to transport oil from Alberta to British Columbia's Roberts Bank Terminal is confronting a landscape of challenges that have historically stalled or derailed similar Canadian projects. Developers must navigate complex financial hurdles, secure Indigenous community consultations, and comply with stringent environmental regulations.

The project, estimated to cost between $35.2 billion and $43.7 billion, will largely follow the existing Trans Mountain Expansion pipeline route. The Trans Mountain Corporation will lead the planning and construction, with Pembina Pipeline Corporation acting as a private sector partner. Pembina currently holds a 10 percent stake during construction and may increase it to 20 percent upon completion, with definitive agreements anticipated by September.

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Even if there were a business standing up today saying, ‘We’re shovel ready, let’s get going,’ by the time you get all the permits, by the time that you deal with all of just the basic stuff, let alone the outside forces that might try and disrupt the process, we’re still talking about the mid-2030s before we see a pipeline.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith suggested a potential full private sector takeover of the project could occur later. However, experts like Moshe Lander, a professor of economics at Concordia University, caution that even with immediate readiness, the permitting process and potential external disruptions mean a pipeline could take until the mid-2030s to become operational. Convincing all stakeholders of a project's long-term commercial viability remains a primary challenge, as demonstrated by the difficulties faced by other major Canadian oil pipelines.

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Pembina will bring its private sector expertise, its capital discipline to the construction and operation of the pipeline.