Polarizing pro-EU leader eyes victory in Armenian election amid Russian tensions

Armenia's Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, a polarizing figure, is poised for victory in the nation's parliamentary elections, signaling a continued pivot towards the West that has deeply unsettled Moscow. Pashinyan, who came to power in 2018 through popular protests, has seen relations with Russia deteriorate significantly during his tenure.

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I think Russia wants to influence trust in Pashinyan. Russia wants people not to trust the process itself and be dissatisfied with how the election is managed.

Concerns are mounting over potential Russian interference in the election. However, Jakob Hedenskog, an analyst at the Centre for Eastern Studies at the Swedish Defence University, believes Russia's strategy is not to sway the vote's outcome but to erode public confidence in the authorities and the electoral process itself. "Russia wants people not to trust the process itself and be dissatisfied with how the election is managed," Hedenskog stated.

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Pashinyan today is a significantly more populist, polarizing political figure than he was when he emerged.

Russia has drawn parallels between Armenia's EU aspirations and the events leading to the war in Ukraine, recently recalling its ambassador from Yerevan in protest of Armenia's deepening ties with the EU. Hedenskog also noted that Pashinyan has become a more populist and polarizing politician since his rise to power, citing his handling of the opposition and his rhetoric regarding the upcoming election.

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It is an example of how polarizing his message is. He has said that if he does not win the election, there will be war in September – very specifically. It is unnecessary polarization.

Many Armenians feel let down by Russia, which did not intervene when Azerbaijan launched a military offensive in 2023 to reclaim the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region. Hedenskog suggested that Moscow's interest lies not in fostering good neighborly relations but in maintaining control over former Soviet republics through corrupt elites dependent on Russia for energy and security, contrasting this with the EU's goal of promoting development and stable democracies.

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Moscow wants them to be dependent on Russia for energy and security, and to fear that Russia can attack them. It is not Russia's goal for them to develop and become prosperous and stable democracies. That, on the other hand, is the EU's goal.