Polish conservatives fractured by party dispute, weakening them before elections

Poland's influential conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party is grappling with a severe internal schism, a development that could undermine its ambitions to return to power. Party leader Jarosław Kaczyński expelled former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and roughly three dozen lawmakers on Friday, following a dispute over the party's future direction.

The conflict escalated after Kaczyński set a midnight deadline for Morawiecki and his supporters to sign loyalty pledges. Their refusal led to their expulsion, a move Kaczyński described as a consequence of their own decision. "Everyone knew what they had to sign, and at the same time, everyone knew what the consequences would be if they didn't sign," Kaczyński stated at a press conference.

Morawiecki's allies are expected to form their own parliamentary club, reducing PiS's representation in the 460-seat Sejm to around 140-145 members. This fragmentation comes as PiS faces declining public support, trailing Prime Minister Donald Tusk's Civic Coalition in recent polls. Analysts suggest the division within the right-wing spectrum could further weaken conservative support, as votes may be split among PiS, two far-right groups, and Morawiecki's faction.

The immediate trigger for the dispute was a July 15 decision requiring members to leave associations engaged in political activity and sign declarations by July 23. Morawiecki had previously formed an association called Rozwój Plus (Development Plus) in April, which he presented as a platform for policy discussions rather than a future political party. Despite an earlier agreement with Kaczyński, he officially registered the association in May, with a large event planned for July 31.

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Everyone knew what they had to sign, and at the same time, everyone knew what the consequences would be if they didn't sign. They therefore made the decision they made.