Polish economy's growth surpasses forecasts

Poland's economy demonstrated resilience in the first quarter of 2026, expanding by 3.5% year-on-year and surpassing earlier projections. The Central Statistical Office (GUS) revised its initial estimate upward, confirming that private consumption, which rose by 3.3%, was the main engine of this growth. Public consumption also saw a significant increase of 6%, alongside a 2.4% rise in investments.

Despite this robust performance, the economic growth rate slowed compared to the final quarter of the previous year, when GDP surged by 4.1%. In a quarter-on-quarter comparison, the economy grew by 0.6% after seasonal adjustments. Foreign trade and inventory changes had a minimal impact on the overall GDP result.

Looking ahead, economists express caution, noting that consumer demand might weaken in the coming quarters due to declining household sentiment and persistent inflation. However, investments are expected to receive a boost from European Union funds, including the recovery plan, and increased defense expenditures. Most forecasts predict Poland's economy will achieve one of the highest growth rates in the European Union for the full year, around 3.5%. Geopolitical instability in the Middle East remains a key risk, potentially affecting energy prices and inflation.