Poll: CDU Loses Ground in Northern Germany, AfD Rises to Second Place

A new election poll indicates a significant shift in political power in Schleswig-Holstein, with the governing CDU party experiencing further losses in support. The survey, conducted by the Insa polling institute for the "Bild" newspaper, suggests that only 27 percent of respondents would vote for the CDU, led by Minister President Daniel Günther. This represents a twelve-percentage-point drop compared to an Insa poll from early 2025, although the CDU would remain the strongest party. Meanwhile, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which narrowly missed the five-percent threshold in 2022, is projected to gain four points, reaching 18 percent and becoming the second-strongest force in the state parliament. The Greens, the CDU's coalition partner, are also projected to gain four points, reaching 17 percent and ranking third, behind the AfD. The Social Democratic Party (SPD) is polling at 15 percent, a slight decrease of one point. The FDP is expected to garner 6 percent (plus two points), while The Left is predicted to see a substantial increase of five points, reaching 7 percent and placing it ahead of the FDP. The South Schleswig Voters' Association (SSW) is expected to remain unchanged at 6 percent. These findings contrast with a previous Schleswig-Holstein-Trend poll by Infratest dimap for NDR in April, which showed the CDU at 33 percent, the Greens at 19 percent, and the AfD at 15 percent. The CDU had narrowly missed an absolute majority in the 2022 state election, securing 43.4 percent of the vote. The next state election is scheduled for April 18, 2027. The poll highlights the volatile nature of voter sentiment, with factors like decreasing party loyalty and late-deciding voters making accurate forecasting challenging.