Poll: Netanyahu's coalition to fall to 48 seats, opposition to gain 62 in next election

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition faces a significant electoral challenge, with a new poll indicating the opposition bloc could secure a majority in the upcoming October 27, 2026 elections. The Maariv poll projects the opposition, led by Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar!, to win 62 seats, while Netanyahu's current coalition would be reduced to 48.

Netanyahu's Likud party is shown to be losing ground, tied with Yashar! at 22 mandates each. Smaller parties in the current coalition also appear to be struggling, with Shas polling at seven seats, its lowest since the 2022 election. The Religious Zionist Party holds steady with four seats, but Otzma Yehudit drops to seven.

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The poll found that 83% of voters oppose the inclusion of Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) parties in the coalition that is formed after the elections, while only 8% support it.

Beyond seat projections, the poll highlights public sentiment regarding coalition composition. A strong majority of Israelis, 83%, oppose the inclusion of ultra-Orthodox parties in a future government. Conversely, 70% of voters express support for adding an Arab party to the coalition.

The survey also reveals a lack of public confidence in the current government's decision-making capabilities in the lead-up to the election. Only 38% of voters believe the government can make the right decisions, while a significant 55% think it will not. The poll was conducted by Maariv in collaboration with Panel4ALL Research, surveying 500 adult respondents across Israel.

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The opposition bloc is expected to gain 62 seats in the next election, while the current coalition is projected to fall to 48, according to the latest poll published on Friday by Maariv.