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Poll: Opposition May Break Through in Taichung, But Incumbent's Popularity a Hurdle

From Liberty Times · () Chinese

Translated from Chinese, summarized and contextualized by DistantNews.

At a glance

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  • A new poll shows the opposition has a chance to break through in Taichung's mayoral election.
  • The poll indicates potential gains for smaller parties like the Taiwan People's Party and the New Power Party.
  • Analysts suggest the incumbent mayor's popularity, despite past controversies, makes the opposition's task difficult.

A recent poll suggests that opposition parties could make gains in the upcoming Taichung mayoral election, potentially breaking the dominance of the two major parties. The survey, released by the New Taiwan Foundation, indicates that while the Kuomintang's (KMT) candidate, Johnny Chiang, leads the Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) candidate, Ho Hsin-chun, there is a significant portion of undecided voters.

This poll shows that there is still room for development in Taichung outside of the blue and green camps.

— Chen Li-fuChen Li-fu, chairman of the Taiwan Generational Youth Exchange Association, commented on the poll's findings regarding the political landscape in Taichung.

Chen Li-fu, chairman of the Taiwan Generational Youth Exchange Association, commented on the poll, noting that smaller parties, including the Taiwan People's Party and the New Power Party, could perform well, especially in local councilor elections. He observed that while both Chiang and Ho are legislators, Chiang's current role as Vice Speaker of the Legislative Yuan gives him higher public visibility. Ho, despite having strong supporter backing, faces a challenge in converting undecided voters.

The Taiwan People's Party and other third forces are expected to achieve quite a few seats in multi-constituency, multi-seat local councilor elections.

— Chen Li-fuChen Li-fu analyzed the potential impact of smaller parties in the upcoming elections based on the poll results.

Chen also pointed out the resilience of the current mayor, Lu Shiow-yen, who has maintained high approval ratings despite past controversies. He suggested that if past incidents did not derail her tenure, it implies a level of public satisfaction with her performance over the past eight years. This context makes the current polling landscape particularly challenging for the opposition.

This poll is very unfavorable to Cheng Li-wen.

— Chen Li-fuChen Li-fu commented on the challenging electoral prospects for the opposition, referencing a specific candidate.

The analysis suggests that voters may be inclined to avoid prolonged single-party rule, creating an opportunity for the DPP and third forces to achieve a breakthrough in the upcoming elections. However, the incumbent's strong standing presents a significant hurdle for any challenger.

Taiwanese voters have a backlash mentality against a single party ruling for a long time.

— Chen Li-fuChen Li-fu discussed voter psychology and its potential impact on the election outcome.
DistantNews Editorial

Originally published by Liberty Times in Chinese. Translated, summarized, and contextualized by our editorial team with added local perspective. Read our editorial standards.

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