Poll shows Abelardo de la Espriella ahead of Iván Cepeda in hypothetical Colombian presidential runoff

Abelardo de la Espriella holds a lead over Iván Cepeda in a projected second-round presidential election scenario for Colombia in 2026, according to an AtlasIntel survey for Semana magazine. The poll found that 52.2% of respondents would vote for De la Espriella, while 44.5% would support Cepeda in a hypothetical runoff. The remaining votes were cast for blank ballots (2.6%) or undecided (0.7%).

When considering only valid votes, De la Espriella garners 52.6% of the support, with Cepeda at 44.8%. The survey, conducted between June 5 and June 10, 2026, with 3,681 participants, also tracked voter intention over time. De la Espriella's support increased from 50.3% on June 2 to 52.2% by June 10, while Cepeda's rose from 42.6% to 44.5% in the same period. The proportion of voters who were undecided or intended to cast a blank ballot decreased significantly from 7.1% to 3.4%.

The poll also delved into voter rejection, with 51.7% of respondents stating they reject Iván Cepeda more as a potential president, compared to 46.6% who expressed greater rejection of Abelardo de la Espriella. A small percentage, 1.7%, rejected both candidates equally. The survey's technical details indicate a margin of error of ±2 percentage points and a 95% confidence level, using a random digital recruitment methodology adjusted for national electorate characteristics.