'Potential for confrontation with Turkey has increased,' warns ex-National Security Council chief

Meir Ben-Shabbat, former national security adviser and head of the National Security Council, has issued a stark warning regarding Israel's security landscape, particularly concerning the growing regional influence of Syria and Turkey. Ben-Shabbat, a key architect of the Abraham Accords, emphasized the need for continued pursuit of peace but cautioned against compromising security assets or relying on potentially reversible agreements.

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We must not give up the aspiration for peace, but we must not allow it to make us lose our judgment.

Ben-Shabbat expressed skepticism about Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa's intentions. He suggested that al-Sharaa's apparent change in demeanor might be a tactic to gain international recognition and stabilize his rule, rather than an abandonment of his core ideology. Ben-Shabbat, drawing on his experience with extremist leaders, warned against being swayed by superficial changes and urged Israel not to assume al-Sharaa has abandoned his path.

"We must not give up the aspiration for peace," Ben-Shabbat stated, "but we must not allow it to make us lose our judgment." He specifically advised against relinquishing control of territory or freedom of security action for agreements that might prove worthless, citing Lebanon and Syria as areas of concern.

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I do not know how to read innermost thoughts and intentions. But as someone who came from the heart of the jihadist darkness, sat in prison with the most extreme jihadist leaders, fought in its ranks for years while yearning for the realization of the vision of the Islamic State, and reached where he is on the shoulders of a jihadist base, with [Turkish President Recep Tayyip] Erdogan's encouragement and support, one should not be impressed by the change in his outward appearance and under no circumstances assume that he has abandoned his path.

Furthermore, Ben-Shabbat highlighted Turkey's strategic moves to capitalize on regional power vacuums. He noted that with the Syrian regime's partial collapse and the withdrawal of Iranian military presence, Turkey has emerged as a dominant player in Syria. This, combined with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's perceived ambitions and hostility toward Israel, significantly increases the potential for confrontation between the two nations.

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'In any case, and above any arrangement that is formulated, the prophetic warning must hover, "Can a leopard change its spots?"'