Preparing for the strongest “super El Niño” in history

A “super El Niño” could reach its strongest level in history in the final months of 2026 and continue into February 2027, making global weather more extreme. Vietnam, particularly the south, is expected to be among the areas hit hardest.

A recent World Meteorological Organization update said global climate organizations almost unanimously expect a very strong El Niño. Its peak is forecast from late 2026 through February 2027. The WMO said this was the first update on El Niño and La Niña to show such high and decisive agreement among forecasting models worldwide.

The Niño 3.4 index, a common measure of sea-surface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, stood 1.5°C above normal from May to July. From late July to mid-August, it ranged from about 2.2°C to 2.6°C above average. Unusually warm water has also been recorded below the ocean surface, with subsurface temperatures in some areas more than 8°C above average in July and early August.

Vietnam’s National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting expects national temperatures to run 0.5°C to 1.5°C above the long-term average in September, and 1°C to 2°C higher in October and November. From December 2026 through February 2027, temperatures in the Central Highlands and southern Vietnam could be 1.5°C to 2°C above average, or higher in some places.

The higher temperatures could bring prolonged heat and drought, along with a greater risk of saltwater moving deeper into river branches. El Niño has already affected the current rainy season. Ho Chi Minh City’s Tan Son Hoa station recorded a daily high of 36°C in August, while average temperatures across the region ran 0.7°C to 1.8°C above normal. Monthly rainfall was also below or near the long-term average, with deficits of 102.3 millimeters in Ca Mau and 159.8 millimeters in Thu Dau Mot.

“

Notably, this is the first time an update on El Niño and La Niña has shown such high and decisive agreement.